By TONY PUGH
Mcclatchy-tribune
WASHINGTON — As scientists renewed their warnings about the possibility of a deadly worldwide flu epidemic, federal health officials on Thursday introduced a new system to gauge the severity of an outbreak and to help communities deal with the impending threat.
The “pandemic severity index,” developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, ranks flu outbreaks in terms of expected deaths and is modeled after the hurricane warning system that the National Weather Service uses.
In addition to weighing the risks of a potential outbreak, the new system advises local leaders about when and how long to close schools, quarantine family members and keep people home from work if necessary.
The mildest flu strains, those expected to kill fewer than 90,000 residents of the United States, would be known as Category 1 outbreaks.
The most severe, a Category 5 flu epidemic, could kill more than 1.8 million residents of the United States. State and local leaders would adjust the precautions they take according to the rankings, which the CDC will issue.
The rating system is a key feature of a 108-page manual that’ll help standardize the public health measures that state and local leaders will take.
“Pandemic influenza is not necessarily imminent, but we believe it’s inevitable. And it’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when, so we do have to prepare,” said CDC Director Julie Gerberding.
Speakers at a conference in Arlington, Va., reported that neither the United States nor the rest of the world is prepared to meet the danger posed by the lethal H5N1 avian flu virus.
“The disease is highly pathogenic and continues to spread. That’s why we continue to take this threat so seriously,” said Michael Leavitt, secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services.
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